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Monday, May 23, 2011

Marathon Time Goal

Saturday was our second week of marathon training, and as we do on every year at this time, we did a Magic Mile.  I hate the magic mile with a fiery passion, but I do enjoy knowing what my predicted race pace will be.  It's a big deal because I want to know if I can actually run the 5:30 marathon that I really want to run.  And, by 5:30, I mean anything in the 5:30-5:39 range.  I ran the Magic Mile in 9:38, which is a new PR for me (10 seconds better than last year)!  Yay!  So,  here is what Galloway predicts based not only on my magic mile, but also on my Indy Half Marathon time, and my Shamrock 5K time (so, all of the races I've run this year so far):

Galloway's Predictions

Magic Mile: 9:38
Marathon Time Prediction: 5:28

Half Marathon: 2:34
Marathon Time Prediction: 5:34

5K: 33:21
Marathon Time Prediction:  5:47

And, for good measure, let's also use McMillan's

McMillan's Predictions

Magic Mile: 9:38
Marathon Time Prediction: 5:25

Half Marathon: 2:34
Marathon Time Prediction: 5:24

5K: 33:21
Marathon Time Prediction: 5:25

So, it seems like McMillan has more faith in me than Galloway does.  I know these aren't totally accurate, too.  So, it looks like everything is pointing to a new PR, and it seems like 5:30 is not a totally out of this world goal, but it's not going to be the easiest thing to come by.  I think I put 5:40 down as my predicted finish time when I signed up for New York.  I guess we'll have to get closer to November for me to really nail down what my finish time might be.  

For now, I'm just going to figure on 5:30-5:40 to be my time goal...


misszippy said...

All those calculators gave you a fairly close range, actually. Sounds to me like you (and they) know what you can do. Go get it!

marathonmaiden said...

personally i've never been led astray with mcmillian but both calculators are giving you a pretty good range, like miss zippy said. either way i think you're going to better than your predicted time :)

lindsay said...

I think it's a good sign that theyre all close to each other.

Re: android apps - can't help, no idea, sorry!

Black Knight said...

Congrats on the PR.
I have never used the calculators but I trust them.
I am sure you will reach your goal. Good luck.

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